{
  "protocol_version": "1.10.0",
  "protocol_date_modified": "2026-08-30",
  "status": "calculated",
  "as_of": "2026-08-29",
  "company": "Example Manufacturing Co.（架空）",
  "ticker": "EXM",
  "currency": "JPY",
  "amount_unit": "JPY/share",
  "engagement": {
    "requested_level": "professional_valuation",
    "claim_status": "indicative_only",
    "claim_explanation": "一次資料が不完全なためプロ水準の主値ではないが、観測済み基準値と明示仮定で概算レンジを計算した"
  },
  "security_context": {
    "legal_entity": "Example Manufacturing Co.（架空）",
    "country_or_region": "JP",
    "security_type": "common",
    "share_class": "ordinary common shares",
    "exchange": "Synthetic Exchange",
    "security_identifier": "EXM",
    "primary_listing": true,
    "adr_or_unit_ratio": 1,
    "underlying_shares_per_listed_security": 1,
    "financial_statement_as_of": "2026-03-31",
    "market_price_as_of": "2026-08-29",
    "current_market_price": 900,
    "price_unit": "JPY/share",
    "price_currency": "JPY",
    "price_quote_unit_code": "JPY",
    "quote_unit_to_price_currency": 1,
    "identity_verified": true
  },
  "currency_context": {
    "reporting_currency": "JPY",
    "functional_currency": "JPY",
    "price_currency": "JPY",
    "valuation_currency": "JPY",
    "input_amount_unit": "JPY/share",
    "output_amount_unit": "JPY/share",
    "price_quote_unit_code": "JPY",
    "quote_unit_to_price_currency": 1,
    "rates": [],
    "year10_fx_policy": "constant_spot",
    "year10_financial_to_valuation_rate": 1,
    "currency_exposures": [],
    "conversion_trace": [
      "同一通貨・普通株のためFX換算とADR換算はいずれも係数1"
    ],
    "consistent": true
  },
  "model": {
    "id": "profitable",
    "name": "上場・黒字企業 簡易FCFE終点モデル",
    "selection_reason": "現在FCFE/株を基準値として確認でき、超詳細年次経路は不足するため簡易版へフォールバック",
    "selection_evidence_refs": [
      "synthetic-fcfe0"
    ],
    "segment_approach": "single_model",
    "applicable": true,
    "theory_status": "conditional",
    "valuation_role": "cross_check",
    "primary_value_eligible": false,
    "consistency_checks": [
      "Ke>terminal_g",
      "現在値と10年後値を分離",
      "途中分配PVを0とした影響を開示"
    ],
    "rejected_alternatives": [
      "超詳細FCFF DCF（年次再投資経路が不足）"
    ]
  },
  "macro_context": {
    "status": "not_used",
    "model_id": "macro-structural",
    "theory_status": "conditional",
    "valuation_role": "assumption_support",
    "primary_value_eligible": false,
    "bridge_status": "not_used",
    "scenario_order": [
      "bear",
      "base",
      "bull"
    ],
    "calibration": {
      "as_of": null,
      "economy": null,
      "domestic_currency": null,
      "foreign_currency": null,
      "coefficient_status": "not_applicable",
      "estimation_window": null,
      "source_refs": [],
      "limitations": [
        "マクロ文脈を使用していない"
      ]
    },
    "inputs": [],
    "scenarios": [
      {
        "name": "bear",
        "status": "not_applicable",
        "rows": [],
        "year10": null,
        "terminal": null,
        "warnings": [],
        "stop_reason": null
      },
      {
        "name": "base",
        "status": "not_applicable",
        "rows": [],
        "year10": null,
        "terminal": null,
        "warnings": [],
        "stop_reason": null
      },
      {
        "name": "bull",
        "status": "not_applicable",
        "rows": [],
        "year10": null,
        "terminal": null,
        "warnings": [],
        "stop_reason": null
      }
    ],
    "warnings": [],
    "stop_reason": null,
    "evidence_refs": []
  },
  "data_quality": {
    "source_access": "partial",
    "latest_filings_checked": false,
    "material_events_checked_through": null,
    "required_fields": [
      "fcfePerShare0",
      "fcfeGrowth",
      "terminalGrowth",
      "costOfEquity",
      "currentMarketPrice"
    ],
    "covered_fields": [
      "fcfePerShare0",
      "currentMarketPrice"
    ],
    "missing_fields": [
      "会社固有の10年FCFE経路",
      "監査済みKe構成"
    ],
    "coverage_ratio": 0.4,
    "unresolved_source_conflicts": [],
    "stale_inputs": [],
    "evidence_pack_complete": false
  },
  "evidence": [
    {
      "input_id": "synthetic-fcfe0",
      "field": "fcfePerShare0",
      "value": 80,
      "unit": "JPY/share",
      "period": null,
      "classification": "assumption",
      "source_title": null,
      "source_url": null,
      "source_location": null,
      "retrieved_at": null,
      "normalization": "架空の出力例専用。実在企業では直近開示から置換する"
    }
  ],
  "normalization_adjustments": [],
  "assumptions": [
    {
      "field": "fcfeGrowth",
      "unit": "decimal/year",
      "start_year": 1,
      "end_year": 10,
      "bear": 0.01,
      "base": 0.03,
      "bull": 0.05,
      "basis_type": "analyst_judgment",
      "basis": "超詳細経路がない場合の説明用レンジ。実在企業では会社計画・正常化履歴・業種中央値へ置換する",
      "confidence": "low",
      "sensitivity": "1% / 3% / 5%で現在価値590.59 / 718.54 / 870.90円",
      "substitutes_missing_input": true,
      "rationale": "欠損する10年成長経路をBear/Base/Bullで明示補完",
      "evidence_refs": []
    },
    {
      "field": "terminalGrowth",
      "unit": "decimal/year",
      "start_year": 11,
      "end_year": null,
      "bear": 0.01,
      "base": 0.01,
      "bull": 0.01,
      "basis_type": "macro_anchor",
      "basis": "長期名目成長の保守的な説明用アンカー",
      "confidence": "low",
      "sensitivity": "Keとの差が1pt縮小するごとに終端価値が大きく上昇するためKe×g感度が必要",
      "substitutes_missing_input": true,
      "rationale": "永続成長率を明示しKe−g=7ptを確保",
      "evidence_refs": []
    },
    {
      "field": "costOfEquity",
      "unit": "decimal/year",
      "start_year": 0,
      "end_year": 10,
      "bear": 0.08,
      "base": 0.08,
      "bull": 0.08,
      "basis_type": "analyst_judgment",
      "basis": "Rf 2% + beta 1.0 × ERP 5% + 追加プレミアム1%の説明用合成",
      "confidence": "low",
      "sensitivity": "Keを±1pt動かした感度を併記する",
      "substitutes_missing_input": true,
      "rationale": "出典未校正のためprofessional_standard_passedには使わずindicative_onlyとする",
      "evidence_refs": []
    },
    {
      "field": "interimDistributionPv",
      "unit": "JPY/share",
      "start_year": 1,
      "end_year": 10,
      "bear": 0,
      "base": 0,
      "bull": 0,
      "basis_type": "analyst_judgment",
      "basis": "簡易例では途中分配を計上しない",
      "confidence": "low",
      "sensitivity": "実際の配当・買戻しPVだけ現在価値が上振れし得る",
      "substitutes_missing_input": true,
      "rationale": "未観測の途中分配を黙って作らず0とした影響を開示",
      "evidence_refs": []
    }
  ],
  "capital_cost": {
    "status": "used",
    "inputs": [
      {
        "field": "riskFreeRate",
        "value": 0.02,
        "unit": "decimal/year",
        "as_of": "2026-08-29",
        "classification": "assumption",
        "basis": "説明用アンカー",
        "source_title": null,
        "source_url": null
      },
      {
        "field": "beta",
        "value": 1,
        "unit": "x",
        "as_of": "2026-08-29",
        "classification": "assumption",
        "basis": "説明用アンカー",
        "source_title": null,
        "source_url": null
      },
      {
        "field": "equityRiskPremium",
        "value": 0.05,
        "unit": "decimal/year",
        "as_of": "2026-08-29",
        "classification": "assumption",
        "basis": "説明用アンカー",
        "source_title": null,
        "source_url": null
      },
      {
        "field": "additionalPremium",
        "value": 0.01,
        "unit": "decimal/year",
        "as_of": "2026-08-29",
        "classification": "assumption",
        "basis": "説明用アンカー",
        "source_title": null,
        "source_url": null
      }
    ],
    "ke": 0.08,
    "wacc": null,
    "calculation": "Ke = 2% + 1.0 × 5% + 1% = 8%",
    "currency_consistent": true
  },
  "multiple_calibration": {
    "status": "not_used",
    "method": "no_multiple",
    "metric": null,
    "period": null,
    "observations": [],
    "selected_value": null,
    "selection_rule": null,
    "denominator_consistent": false
  },
  "forecast": [
    {
      "year": 10,
      "period": "year10",
      "metrics": {
        "fcfePerShareBear": 88.36977,
        "fcfePerShareBase": 107.51331,
        "fcfePerShareBull": 130.31157
      },
      "formula_checks": [
        "FCFE10=FCFE0×(1+growth)^10"
      ],
      "evidence_refs": [
        "synthetic-fcfe0"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "sotp": {
    "status": "not_applicable",
    "components": [],
    "reconciliation": {
      "segment_sum": null,
      "parent_net_debt": null,
      "nci": null,
      "pension": null,
      "hq_cost_pv": null,
      "tax_adjustment": null,
      "holding_discount": null,
      "equity_value": null,
      "check": "not_applicable"
    }
  },
  "results": {
    "primary_conclusion": {
      "status": "indicative_only",
      "value_at": "today",
      "low": 590.59,
      "base": 718.54,
      "high": 870.9,
      "unit": "JPY/share",
      "range_basis": "FCFE成長率1% / 3% / 5%の仮定付きレンジ"
    },
    "timepoint_conclusions": {
      "today": {
        "status": "indicative_only",
        "value_at": "today",
        "value_basis": "per_share",
        "low": 590.59,
        "base": 718.54,
        "high": 870.9,
        "unit": "JPY/share",
        "range_basis": "10年後終点のPV。途中分配PVは0仮定"
      },
      "year10": {
        "status": "indicative_only",
        "value_at": "year10",
        "value_basis": "per_share",
        "low": 1275.05,
        "base": 1551.26,
        "high": 1880.21,
        "unit": "JPY/share",
        "range_basis": "FCFE10×1.01÷(0.08−0.01)"
      }
    },
    "today_theoretical_value": 718.54,
    "today_theoretical_value_basis": "per_share",
    "today_theoretical_value_unit": "JPY/share",
    "year10_price": 1551.26,
    "year10_price_unit": "JPY/share",
    "year10_equity_value": null,
    "year10_equity_value_unit": null,
    "year10_price_cagr": 0.08,
    "return_metric_type": "deterministic_endpoint_cagr",
    "market_implied_expectations": {
      "status": "calculated",
      "market_reference": 900,
      "market_reference_unit": "JPY/share",
      "target_field": "fcfeGrowth",
      "target_label": "10年FCFE/株 CAGR",
      "base_assumption": 0.03,
      "implied_assumption": 0.0534567,
      "assumption_unit": "decimal/year",
      "search_low": -0.05,
      "search_high": 0.15,
      "model_value_at_implied": 900,
      "residual": 0,
      "fixed_assumptions": [
        "FCFE0=80円/株",
        "Ke=8%",
        "terminal g=1%",
        "途中分配PV=0"
      ],
      "interpretation": "他のBase前提固定では、現在株価900円はFCFE/株の10年CAGR約5.35%を要求する",
      "limitations": [
        "単一変数の逆算であり、市場参加者の期待を一意に特定しない"
      ]
    },
    "scenarios": [
      {
        "name": "bear",
        "today_theoretical_value": 590.59,
        "today_theoretical_value_basis": "per_share",
        "today_theoretical_value_unit": "JPY/share",
        "year10_price": 1275.05,
        "year10_price_unit": "JPY/share",
        "year10_equity_value": null,
        "year10_equity_value_unit": null
      },
      {
        "name": "base",
        "today_theoretical_value": 718.54,
        "today_theoretical_value_basis": "per_share",
        "today_theoretical_value_unit": "JPY/share",
        "year10_price": 1551.26,
        "year10_price_unit": "JPY/share",
        "year10_equity_value": null,
        "year10_equity_value_unit": null
      },
      {
        "name": "bull",
        "today_theoretical_value": 870.9,
        "today_theoretical_value_basis": "per_share",
        "today_theoretical_value_unit": "JPY/share",
        "year10_price": 1880.21,
        "year10_price_unit": "JPY/share",
        "year10_equity_value": null,
        "year10_equity_value_unit": null
      }
    ],
    "primary_method": "簡易FCFE終点モデル（indicative cross-check）",
    "cross_checks": [],
    "sensitivities": []
  },
  "calculation_trace": [
    {
      "step_id": "base-fcfe10",
      "input_refs": [
        "synthetic-fcfe0",
        "fcfeGrowth"
      ],
      "formula": "FCFE10=FCFE0×(1+g)^10",
      "substitution": "80×(1+0.03)^10",
      "result": 107.51331,
      "unit": "JPY/share",
      "value_at": "year10"
    },
    {
      "step_id": "base-year10-price",
      "input_refs": [
        "base-fcfe10",
        "terminalGrowth",
        "costOfEquity"
      ],
      "formula": "Price10=FCFE10×(1+terminal_g)÷(Ke−terminal_g)",
      "substitution": "107.51331×1.01÷(0.08−0.01)",
      "result": 1551.26348,
      "unit": "JPY/share",
      "value_at": "year10"
    },
    {
      "step_id": "base-today-value",
      "input_refs": [
        "base-year10-price",
        "costOfEquity",
        "interimDistributionPv"
      ],
      "formula": "ValueToday=Price10÷(1+Ke)^10+interimDistributionPv",
      "substitution": "1551.26348÷1.08^10+0",
      "result": 718.53514,
      "unit": "JPY/share",
      "value_at": "today"
    },
    {
      "step_id": "market-implied-growth",
      "input_refs": [
        "currentMarketPrice",
        "synthetic-fcfe0",
        "terminalGrowth",
        "costOfEquity"
      ],
      "formula": "ValueToday(g*)=currentMarketPrice",
      "substitution": "80×(1+g*)^10×1.01÷0.07÷1.08^10=900",
      "result": 0.0534567,
      "unit": "decimal/year",
      "value_at": "today"
    }
  ],
  "validation": {
    "scope_frozen": true,
    "security_identity_verified": true,
    "units_consistent": true,
    "timepoints_separated": true,
    "gates_passed": true,
    "theory_conditions_passed": true,
    "gordon_spread_check": "passed",
    "no_double_counting": true,
    "latest_information_checked": false,
    "evidence_complete": false,
    "model_registry_match": true,
    "accounting_normalized": false,
    "forecast_check": "passed",
    "capital_cost_check": "failed",
    "multiple_calibration_check": "not_applicable",
    "sotp_check": "not_applicable",
    "share_count_reconciled": true,
    "scenario_order_checked": true,
    "independent_recalculation_passed": true,
    "professional_claim_allowed": false,
    "audit_outcome": "indicative_only",
    "failed_checks": [
      "latest_information",
      "evidence_coverage",
      "normalization",
      "assumption_calibration"
    ]
  },
  "missing_information": [
    "実在企業の一次資料",
    "会社固有の年次FCFE・再投資経路",
    "市場データで校正したKe"
  ],
  "not_computable_reason": null,
  "limitations": [
    "架空の数値で仮定付き概算の出力方法だけを示す例。実在企業の投資判断には使えない"
  ]
}